Premier League Expected Points (xG) Table
The 2026/2027 season — the table ranked by expected points from xG — who is over- and under-performing their chances.
| # | Team | P | xPts | Pts | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
|
6 | 11.6 | 15 | +3.4 |
| 2 |
Manchester City
|
6 | 11.3 | 18 | +6.7 |
| 3 |
Brighton & Hove Albion
|
6 | 11.0 | 13 | +2.0 |
| 4 |
Nottingham Forest
|
6 | 10.9 | 5 | -5.9 |
| 5 |
Everton
|
6 | 9.8 | 10 | +0.2 |
| 6 |
Brentford
|
6 | 9.3 | 10 | +0.7 |
| 7 |
Bournemouth
|
6 | 9.2 | 3 | -6.2 |
| 8 |
Manchester United
|
6 | 8.8 | 6 | -2.8 |
| 9 |
Liverpool
|
6 | 8.6 | 9 | +0.4 |
| 10 |
Sunderland
|
6 | 8.5 | 4 | -4.5 |
| 11 |
Leeds United
|
6 | 7.9 | 9 | +1.1 |
| 12 |
Tottenham Hotspur
|
6 | 7.7 | 3 | -4.7 |
| 13 |
Chelsea
|
6 | 7.3 | 10 | +2.7 |
| 14 |
Fulham
|
6 | 7.1 | 2 | -5.1 |
| 15 |
Ipswich Town
|
6 | 6.9 | 9 | +2.1 |
| 16 |
Hull City
|
6 | 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 |
| 17 |
Newcastle United
|
6 | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 |
| 18 |
Crystal Palace
|
6 | 6.3 | 7 | +0.7 |
| 19 |
Aston Villa
|
6 | 6.1 | 5 | -1.1 |
| 20 |
Coventry City
|
6 | 5.9 | 6 | +0.1 |
xPts converts each match's xG into win/draw/loss probabilities (Poisson model) and sums the expected points. Luck is actual points minus xPts over the same matches — a big positive number means results have flattered them. Only matches with xG data are counted. See also the streaks and season records.
