Premier League Expected Points (xG) Table

The 2026/2027 season — the table ranked by expected points from xG — who is over- and under-performing their chances.

Season 2026/2027 (current) 2025/2026 2024/2025 2023/2024 2022/2023

#	Team	P	xG	xGA	xPts	Pts	Luck
1	Arsenal	4	8.2	3.3	8.6	12	+3.4
2	Nottingham Forest	4	7.2	4.3	7.0	5	-2.0
3	Manchester City	3	7.2	3.1	6.6	9	+2.4
4	Bournemouth	4	7.2	5.7	6.6	3	-3.6
5	Liverpool	4	7.0	6.0	6.2	6	-0.2
6	Sunderland	4	7.0	6.2	6.0	4	-2.0
7	Brentford	4	8.0	6.6	6.0	6	+0.0
8	Chelsea	4	8.1	7.8	5.6	7	+1.4
9	Everton	4	5.8	6.1	5.5	6	+0.5
10	Manchester United	3	7.5	4.4	5.3	4	-1.3
11	Ipswich Town	4	6.0	7.7	5.2	6	+0.8
12	Brighton & Hove Albion	3	8.0	6.3	4.8	4	-0.8
13	Hull City	4	4.6	5.8	4.5	8	+3.5
14	Fulham	4	6.2	8.3	4.2	1	-3.2
15	Crystal Palace	4	6.5	8.9	4.2	3	-1.2
16	Tottenham Hotspur	4	4.1	7.5	4.2	2	-2.2
17	Leeds United	3	3.9	4.5	3.6	5	+1.4
18	Coventry City	3	3.2	4.5	3.4	0	-3.4
19	Aston Villa	4	3.3	9.1	3.0	1	-2.0
20	Newcastle United	3	3.4	5.9	2.7	5	+2.3

xPts converts each match's xG into win/draw/loss probabilities (Poisson model) and sums the expected points. Luck is actual points minus xPts over the same matches — a big positive number means results have flattered them. Only matches with xG data are counted. See also the streaks and season records.