Ligue 1 Expected Points (xG) Table
The 2026/2027 season — the table ranked by expected points from xG — who is over- and under-performing their chances.
| # | Team | P | xPts | Pts | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Paris
|
6 | 12.2 | 11 | -1.2 |
| 2 |
Stade Brestois 29
|
6 | 11.9 | 8 | -3.9 |
| 3 |
Paris Saint-Germain
|
5 | 10.5 | 10 | -0.5 |
| 4 |
Racing Club de Lens
|
6 | 10.2 | 7 | -3.2 |
| 5 |
Toulouse
|
6 | 10.2 | 6 | -4.2 |
| 6 |
Lille OSC
|
6 | 8.0 | 13 | +5.0 |
| 7 |
Lorient
|
6 | 7.4 | 8 | +0.6 |
| 8 |
Olympique Lyonnais
|
5 | 7.3 | 8 | +0.7 |
| 9 |
OGC Nice
|
6 | 6.7 | 8 | +1.3 |
| 10 |
Angers SCO
|
5 | 6.4 | 7 | +0.6 |
| 11 |
Olympique de Marseille
|
5 | 6.2 | 6 | -0.2 |
| 12 |
Le Havre
|
6 | 5.9 | 2 | -3.9 |
| 13 |
AJ Auxerre
|
5 | 5.9 | 6 | +0.1 |
| 14 |
ES Troyes
|
6 | 5.7 | 4 | -1.7 |
| 15 |
Strasbourg Alsace
|
6 | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 |
| 16 |
Le Mans
|
5 | 5.1 | 6 | +0.9 |
| 17 |
AS Monaco
|
1 | 1.4 | 1 | -0.4 |
xPts converts each match's xG into win/draw/loss probabilities (Poisson model) and sums the expected points. Luck is actual points minus xPts over the same matches — a big positive number means results have flattered them. Only matches with xG data are counted. See also the streaks and season records.
