Bundesliga Expected Points (xG) Table

The 2026/2027 season — the table ranked by expected points from xG — who is over- and under-performing their chances.

Season 2026/2027 (current) 2025/2026 2024/2025 2023/2024 2022/2023

#	Team	P	xG	xGA	xPts	Pts	Luck
1	Bayern München	5	17.9	5.0	13.0	10	-3.0
2	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	5	12.7	5.6	10.8	10	-0.8
3	Freiburg	5	10.3	4.4	10.7	13	+2.3
4	Borussia Dortmund	5	11.2	5.1	10.4	13	+2.6
5	RB Leipzig	5	13.5	7.1	10.0	9	-1.0
6	1. FSV Mainz 05	5	12.7	8.5	9.2	7	-2.2
7	1. FC Köln	5	10.5	9.7	7.6	7	-0.6
8	1899 Hoffenheim	5	9.6	9.9	6.8	3	-3.8
9	Eintracht Frankfurt	5	10.8	13.6	6.0	7	+1.0
10	Stuttgart	5	10.7	14.1	5.4	6	+0.6
11	SV Werder Bremen	5	6.1	8.9	5.3	8	+2.7
12	Augsburg	5	10.5	13.1	5.0	10	+5.0
13	Hamburger SV	5	5.5	10.2	4.8	6	+1.2
14	Schalke 04	5	7.0	11.9	4.7	5	+0.3
15	1. FC Union Berlin	5	6.2	13.1	4.6	3	-1.6
16	Borussia Mönchengladbach	5	8.5	14.0	4.2	0	-4.2
17	Paderborn 07	5	5.2	10.1	4.2	4	-0.2
18	SV 07 Elversberg	5	6.5	11.1	4.2	7	+2.8

xPts converts each match's xG into win/draw/loss probabilities (Poisson model) and sums the expected points. Luck is actual points minus xPts over the same matches — a big positive number means results have flattered them. Only matches with xG data are counted. See also the streaks and season records.