Bundesliga Expected Points (xG) Table
The 2026/2027 season — the table ranked by expected points from xG — who is over- and under-performing their chances.
| # | Team | P | xPts | Pts | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bayern München
|
3 | 7.7 | 7 | -0.7 |
| 2 |
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
|
3 | 7.0 | 4 | -3.0 |
| 3 |
RB Leipzig
|
3 | 7.0 | 6 | -1.0 |
| 4 |
Freiburg
|
3 | 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 |
| 5 |
1. FSV Mainz 05
|
3 | 6.3 | 4 | -2.3 |
| 6 |
Borussia Dortmund
|
3 | 5.6 | 9 | +3.4 |
| 7 |
Eintracht Frankfurt
|
3 | 4.7 | 6 | +1.3 |
| 8 |
1. FC Köln
|
3 | 4.4 | 4 | -0.4 |
| 9 |
1899 Hoffenheim
|
3 | 4.2 | 3 | -1.2 |
| 10 |
Augsburg
|
3 | 4.2 | 7 | +2.8 |
| 11 |
Stuttgart
|
3 | 3.3 | 3 | -0.3 |
| 12 |
SV 07 Elversberg
|
3 | 2.6 | 6 | +3.4 |
| 13 |
Schalke 04
|
3 | 2.5 | 4 | +1.5 |
| 14 |
SV Werder Bremen
|
3 | 2.5 | 4 | +1.5 |
| 15 |
1. FC Union Berlin
|
3 | 2.4 | 0 | -2.4 |
| 16 |
Borussia Mönchengladbach
|
3 | 1.9 | 0 | -1.9 |
| 17 |
Paderborn 07
|
3 | 1.9 | 1 | -0.9 |
| 18 |
Hamburger SV
|
3 | 1.6 | 0 | -1.6 |
xPts converts each match's xG into win/draw/loss probabilities (Poisson model) and sums the expected points. Luck is actual points minus xPts over the same matches — a big positive number means results have flattered them. Only matches with xG data are counted. See also the streaks and season records.
