Serie A Expected Points (xG) Table
The 2026/2027 season — the table ranked by expected points from xG — who is over- and under-performing their chances.
| # | Team | P | xPts | Pts | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
AS Roma
|
5 | 11.9 | 13 | +1.1 |
| 2 |
Juventus
|
5 | 11.6 | 10 | -1.6 |
| 3 |
Internazionale Milano
|
5 | 10.6 | 13 | +2.4 |
| 4 |
Como 1907
|
5 | 8.9 | 10 | +1.1 |
| 5 |
Milan
|
5 | 8.8 | 11 | +2.2 |
| 6 |
Napoli
|
5 | 8.7 | 7 | -1.7 |
| 7 |
Monza
|
5 | 8.5 | 4 | -4.5 |
| 8 |
Lazio
|
5 | 7.9 | 13 | +5.1 |
| 9 |
Bologna FC 1909
|
5 | 7.7 | 2 | -5.7 |
| 10 |
US Sassuolo Calcio
|
5 | 7.6 | 7 | -0.6 |
| 11 |
Fiorentina
|
5 | 6.4 | 4 | -2.4 |
| 12 |
Cagliari Calcio
|
5 | 5.8 | 12 | +6.2 |
| 13 |
Venezia
|
5 | 5.6 | 0 | -5.6 |
| 14 |
Frosinone Calcio
|
5 | 5.5 | 10 | +4.5 |
| 15 |
Udinese Calcio
|
5 | 5.3 | 4 | -1.3 |
| 16 |
Torino
|
5 | 5.2 | 4 | -1.2 |
| 17 |
Genoa
|
5 | 4.8 | 1 | -3.8 |
| 18 |
Parma Calcio 1913
|
5 | 3.7 | 4 | +0.3 |
| 19 |
Atalanta
|
5 | 3.1 | 6 | +2.9 |
| 20 |
US Lecce
|
5 | 2.8 | 6 | +3.2 |
xPts converts each match's xG into win/draw/loss probabilities (Poisson model) and sums the expected points. Luck is actual points minus xPts over the same matches — a big positive number means results have flattered them. Only matches with xG data are counted. See also the streaks and season records.
