Primera Division Expected Points (xG) Table
The 2026/2027 season — the table ranked by expected points from xG — who is over- and under-performing their chances.
| # | Team | P | xPts | Pts | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Barcelona
|
8 | 20.3 | 24 | +3.7 |
| 2 |
Real Madrid
|
8 | 17.6 | 18 | +0.4 |
| 3 |
Atlético Madrid
|
8 | 14.5 | 19 | +4.5 |
| 4 |
Villarreal
|
8 | 13.8 | 8 | -5.8 |
| 5 |
Real Betis Balompié
|
8 | 12.2 | 19 | +6.8 |
| 6 |
Deportivo Alavés
|
8 | 12.1 | 11 | -1.1 |
| 7 |
Athletic Club
|
6 | 11.4 | 8 | -3.4 |
| 8 |
Sevilla
|
8 | 10.5 | 14 | +3.5 |
| 9 |
Deportivo La Coruña
|
8 | 10.1 | 10 | -0.1 |
| 10 |
CA Osasuna
|
8 | 9.7 | 8 | -1.7 |
| 11 |
Real Racing Club de Santander
|
8 | 9.4 | 8 | -1.4 |
| 12 |
Elche
|
8 | 9.3 | 6 | -3.3 |
| 13 |
Real Sociedad de Fútbol
|
8 | 8.9 | 13 | +4.1 |
| 14 |
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
|
7 | 8.0 | 8 | +0.0 |
| 15 |
Valencia
|
8 | 7.8 | 5 | -2.8 |
| 16 |
Levante
|
7 | 7.4 | 6 | -1.4 |
| 17 |
Getafe
|
8 | 7.2 | 8 | +0.8 |
| 18 |
Málaga
|
8 | 6.4 | 4 | -2.4 |
xPts converts each match's xG into win/draw/loss probabilities (Poisson model) and sums the expected points. Luck is actual points minus xPts over the same matches — a big positive number means results have flattered them. Only matches with xG data are counted. See also the streaks and season records.
